2022 NBA Rookies and their fantasy outlook for 2023/24

As promised, we're diving into some fantasy analysis as Yahoo's doors swing open and the fantasy basketball buzz ramps up. For those familiar with my redraft strategy, you know I've got a penchant for the high-risk, high-reward game, always on the lookout for rookies and 2nd/3rd year players. In this piece, I'm shedding light on five rookies from last year's draft, digging into their post-All-Star break performances, and peering ahead to what the upcoming season holds in store. Everyone is talking about the Banchero, Williams, Kessler, Duren’s of the world, rightfully so, and as such I thought I’d take a closer look at five rookies with some intriguing questions around their impact this season that may not be as clear as the big guns.

Jaden Ivey

19.3 points 2.3 threes 3.7 rebounds with 7.1 assists

0.5 steals 0.2 blocks 40.7 FG% with 81.3 FT% in 34 minutes per game

The number 5 pick, Ivey was inserted in a bigger role when Cunningham went down 12 games into the season and even bigger one after the all star break as Bojan, Stewart and Burks played a sum total of 10 games from Feb 21 to the end of the season, so that has to be taken into account in looking at these stats since there were not many other options on this team.

Ivey showed some flashes as primary playmaker with big assist games, which was encouraging. His rim finishing numbers , usage and efficiency in general would be interesting to watch this year with Cade back with Ausar inserted.

Fantasy outlook: He is a standard league guy for me, draftable in the late rounds (120 onwards) with some upside if they use him as secondary playmaker and he takes the leap that young guards usually take in year 2 and 3.

Jaden Hardy

12.8 points 2.3 threes 2.7 rebounds with 2.4 assists

0.5 steals 0.2 blocks 45.3 FG% with 74.2 FT% in 20 minutes per game

Hardy spent some time in the G-League this past year and put up numbers and when he was given some minutes down the stretch for the Mavs, showing flashes as a scorer, and had a high usage of 26.9%. This year he would enter likely as the first guard not named Kyrie and Luka for the Mavs. If he can develop more from a bench playmaker standpoint along with show some defensive chops, he could earn himself a 25 minute role off the bench ahead of Hardaway and Curry.

Fantasy outlook: Watchlist player, could be a must add if Kyrie or Luka miss time.

Ochai Agbaji

13.5 points 2.3 threes 2.7 rebounds with 2.2 assists

0.5 steals 0.5 blocks 39.5 FG% with 86.8 FT% in 29 minutes per game

Agbaji showed some flashes as a 3/D player down the stretch especially shooting a high percentage on corner threes and showing ability to guard opposing premier guards Most of his production came when Lauri, Kessler, Clarkson missed time and that should be taken into consideration. J

Fantasy outlook: He has a chance of starting at the 2 since he is likely their best perimeter defender, which gives him some backend value as a stream guy, not a draftable player. Keyonte George has been drafted there and has ability to play the 2 as well, if not just start at the 1.

Malaki Branham

12.6 points 1.2 threes 4 rebounds with 1.9 assists

0.4 steals 0 blocks 43.4 FG% with 92.5 FT% in 26 minutes per game

After the all star break, Vassell, Keldon and Sochan missed some time, therefore giving more opportunity to Branham. Branham showed some scoring flashes, being second in the whole league on floaters (59.3% on 86 attempts for the season). He did not show much playmaking chops or defensive ability (1 block total after the all star break), therefore he has not shown the most friendly fantasy skillset so far.

Fantasy outlook: Vassell, Keldon are still ahead of him in the pecking order, we expect Sochan to take a leap as well, so for me his role remains as a bench scorer, with a chance to hit 25 minutes. Streamer for points, not draftable.

A.J. Griffin

7.4 points 1.1 threes 2.3 rebounds with 1.1 assists

0.2 steals 0.3 blocks 42.1 FG% with 94.1 FT% in 16 minutes per game

AJ Griffin is still only 19 and will now enter his sophomore year in the NBA younger than many of the top 10 picks in this year’s draft. Advanced stats love Griffin especially on dribble pull up’s(6th in the league at 56.8% on 182 attempts) and floaters(57.1% on 98 attempts). This shows his offensive upside, along with the fact that he is a good 3p shooter (37.3% after the break). A rotation role has opened up with Collins gone and Johnson, Griffin and Bey should be the primary beneficiaries. If a reported Hunter trade happens as well, he may benefit even more depending on what comes back.

Fantasy outlook: Watchlist guy in redraft leagues as he could give threes and steals in a bigger role, with some rebounds trickled in. However Bey and Johnson would still get the first cracks for Collins’ role, and as such he would not draftable just yet.

Hope you enjoyed this piece and insight into some interesting rookies that may not be top of mind for many redraft managers!

Follow me on Twitter here for more fantasy analysis and threads!