Early NBA Fantasy Draft Thoughts

So, mock draft season is here! I’ve done multiple industry mock redraft drafts already, thank you Josh, Adam, Alex for organising them and having me on!

Here’s links on all of them, make sure to check them out!

Article on Rotowire Mock

Here are some of my initial thoughts on the trends I’ve seen in the mocks and other draft-only leagues I’ve done that have been organised by FBI Basketball.

1. Get assists early

   This is usually the case every year, that assists go off the board early. This year as well, I’ve noticed that 8 of my top 12 projected players in assists are usually going in the top 20. You can find some assists guys later on such as Morant in the 60-70s, Henderson, Paul and Dinwiddie in the 80-90s. Tre Jones and Ben Simmons are also late round guys who can provide assists. However getting assists early is key if you want to be competitive in that category.
   

2. Get points really early.
   

   Points of course are categorically scarce as rounds go on in fantasy drafts, the lesser the chance you have of getting positive points contributors. So by no surprise, 10 of the top 12 projected players for points are usually going in the top 10 of drafts. Where this is important is, if for example, you draft Jokic, Lamelo or Haliburton in the first round, they are elite in points yes, but not as elite as some of the other guys who go in the same round, so in this scenario, you need to find points in round 2/3/4 in order to stay competitive. Zion, LeBron, Lavine, Poole are some of the guys who are usually available past pick 30 who will still give elite points.
   

3. Hot Take: 14 players could average 2 blocks a game this year. Bigs are available late.

   
   In doing my projections this year, I can see the case for 14 big men averaging 2 blocks this year, thus by default, making it easier to get blocks all over the draft. Yes you’ll probably have to pay a top 30 pick for Anthony Davis, JJJ, Wemby and Chet however there are other big men available late who can easily average 2 blocks as well such as Lopez, Robert Williams, Okongwu, Gobert who should all be available past pick 60 in competitive drafts. For reference, only 6 players averaged more than 2 blocks last year, thus making it harder to compete if you didn’t have an elite blocks guy, this year I think it’s more competitive.
   

4. Steals and threes are available late.
   
   Threes and steals don’t need to be chased early in drafts. In doing these mocks, I noticed in the last rounds past pick 120, steals and threes specialists were readily available. 10 of the top 36 players I have projected in steals have an ADP higher than 110. Threes specialists like Hardaway, Struss, Grimes, Huerter were all available in these drafts in the last/penultimate rounds.

These are all of course initial thoughts, and we still have 60+ days to go for the season, so this will evolve. Thank you for reading!

Follow me on Twitter here!